Escape From Pianosa

I went to the city to get my scooter out of the back shed in my house in Baltimore.. And I notice that everything smells like shit… And I look around… And there’s blankets on the ground, in my little back yard. Yes, there’s a bum living there. A freaking bum living in my back yard. No wonder the house isn’t selling.

But this pales in comparison to the woman in my rental house who, after notifying me 2 months ago that she’s leaving, decides that in fact she wants to stay. Only she doesn’t tell me until two days before another family is scheduled to move in, and one week before I sell the house to another investor.

It pales in comparison because unlike the bum, who I can evict by moving his blankets and bicycle into the alley, I have to hire a lawyer to get the woman out. It’s my property, she has no right to be there, yet legally I’m forbidden from removing her. Tell me how that makes sense. If a stranger breaks into your house you can kick ‘em out at gunpoint. I don’t see how this is any different.

1. The Federal Reserve and its role in the housing bubble. Artificially low interest rates create excessive demand for long-term assets (like real estate), until the inflationary pressure spreads to other sectors, driving rates back up, causing a painful “readjustment” in long-term asset prices. Like my house. That was appraised at $236,000 in January 2006 and now refuses to sell at $199,500. Via the Austrian Economists.
I blame myself, as well as the Fed for the mess I’m in now. Which leads me to wonder if people who are partial to a philosophy of individual responsibility will be more likely to mis-attribute their failure or success to their own actions, even if they are the victims of luck, circumstance, or bad Fed policy.

2. Tyler Cowen on the development of social conventions such as tapping your foot to signal your interest in gay escapades with your stall neighbor. Seriously, what bold pioneer was the first to initiate such behavior and how is it codified? Or is there a secret gay planning committee that governs the conventions of sexual solicitation? I favor a spontaneous order explanation.

It’s so refreshing to see the rebellious kids, skateboarding by my window in tight jeans.

What are the implications for marriage and dating when scientists cure aging and humans can live vastly extended lives? If we live to 200 or 300 years old, will we still be monogamous?

It seems to me that the answer is no. When we get married, we forgo all future romantic relationships. In today’s world, where you might expect to live into your 80s or 90s, the opportunity cost of marriage is relatively low. If I get married at 30, then I’m giving up 50 to 60 years of single life. But as every year passes, the returns to bachelorhood decline. Every year I’m a little more wrinkled and my body is a little less defined. Financial success can offset these losses in physical appeal, but only up to a certain point. The 70-year-old millionaire isn’t much competition in dating terms for a fit 30-year-old who makes $70,000 a year.

But all that changes if I’m not aging anymore. If my nominal age is 95, but my biological age is 42, then I’ll still be an attractive mate. And so the costs of marriage skyrocket. Instead of forgoing 15-20 years of eligible bachelor status, I’ll be forgoing 150-250 years of eligibility.

My prediction is that people will still get married but on more of an ad hoc basis. We’ll get married for say 30 years, during which we’ll join together with a mate for the purpose of raising children, but these relationships will end amicably and people will go their separate ways, to start new families with new mates.